It's not going to be a permanent 13 mile jam Philip Halling / Lorries at Dover / CC BY-SA 2.0

It is of course a great sport to be able to spot the more absurd claims being made about how Brexit will destroy everything that is lovely about our green and pleasant land. It’s less lovely to contemplate that those making the claims are either stupid enough to believe the claims or think we’re that stupid. It’s thus worth examining this latest nonsense:

By Faisal Islam, political editor

The government’s “temporary solution” to potential traffic chaos on Kent’s roads after Brexit will have to last “many years” as a permanent solution will not be in place until “2023 at the earliest”, Sky News can reveal.

According to internal Brexit impact reports from two Conservative-run local councils, the conversion of four lanes of the M20 motorway into a 13-mile (20km) long lorry park could be in place for a number of years after the UK’s departure from the EU.

The first preparations for the scheme, known as Operation Brock, have just begun, with hard shoulders about to be strengthened to sustain the weight of hundreds of parked articulated lorries.

Such a scenario is anticipated should either the Channel Tunnel or cross-Channel ferry routes see new customs or regulatory checks after Brexit.

Perhaps our first task here is to contemplate the intellect of Faisal Islam. Not great would be that first estimation.

To understand why think like you’re the bloke who makes the stuff that goes on the lorries that go to Dover. Sure, it started out, when we were bosom buddies in the EU, with the lorry leaving the factory and being in France that evening. Great, eh?

Now we’ve done the Brexit dirty deed, full customs controls are now in place in France and it takes 2 weeks to get that lorry over the Channel. Our lad goes and twiddles his thumbs at our expense in that lorry park waiting for space on a ferry.

Except, of course, he doesn’t. Because I’m the bloke making the stuff that goes on the lorry and I’m not stupid enough to send it over to France if there’s a 2 week delay, am I?

So, what will actually happen? Start from the beginning, the ferry and Tunnel capacity is going to be exactly the same as it is today. Brexit is not going to mean blowing up the ships themselves now, is it? OK, so there’s situation normal in France with the Frogs making life difficult. That means long delays for any specific lorry passing through customs. But what happens to that tail of lorries waiting to approach customs?

Well, given that not everyone actually is an idiot they don’t exist, do they? The news of that 13 mile tailback in week one has got around. Lorries and or containers now go via Harwich, Grimsby, Felixstowe, Newhaven. Business doesn’t happen at all perhaps. But there’s just no manner at all in which we’re going to have a permanent 13 mile tailback. To think so is to be grievously in error. Traffic flow to Dover will vary given the difficulty or not of getting through Dover, obviously enough. It is only variability in that difficulty which is going to cause jams, the standard flow and throughput will adapt to whatever the constant difficulties are.

Or as we might put it, a 13 mile tailback raises the price of going through Dover so fewer people will do it, thus eliminating the tailback.

Subscribe to The CT Mailer!

7
Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
7 Comment threads
0 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
7 Comment authors
BB01NDReaderBniCChester DrawsSpike Recent comment authors

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Rhoda Klapp
Member
Rhoda Klapp

Which makes you wonder, does Faisal believe this crap, or does he merely believe WE will believe it? Either explanation makes him stupid.

Pat
Member
Pat

To which I might add that there is a finite number of lorries. The slower they go the slower they complete the round trip. So even if none of the trade diverts (seriously unlikely as you say) expect both the owners and the drivers of the lorries to organise parking in a more convenient location- like back at the depot.

Spike
Member

Recipe: Note that everything is changing; assume that such factors as you invent will be totally unchanged; illustrate the resulting chaos. Oh, yes, and also assume that neither bureaucrats nor the British public have a problem with the M20 being turned into a lorry park and demand solutions. Were there a logjam at the border, how does the UK-minus-EU lose its historical expertise both at queue management and at persuading all that cooperating with the management is in their own best interest? Brexit does demand that a new task be performed, incoming inspection, as we no longer trust France (or… Read more »

Chester Draws
Member
Chester Draws

Are there kilometre long tailbacks at the Swiss-French border?

If such a thing were to happen it would be French customers and businesses that suffered, not British ones. France doesn’t want that.

These people need to see a Customs Agent and get pre-clearance and expedited clearance explained to them.

BniC
Member
BniC

Maybe the next post will be that the ferry companies and tunnel are going to be in trouble because of reduced volume as it’s now so difficult to cross

NDReader
Member
NDReader

In short, however bad the problems, it makes sense to organise things so there is a virtual queue rather than an actual queue. The lorries and drivers can be off doing something useful while waiting their turn.

BB01
Member
BB01

Why no tailbacks of lorries taking boxes to load onboard ship for non-EU Countries? Were there such tailbacks prior to the EU, 1993 or prior to the EEC, 1973? If the hold up is in France, won’t all the trucks be blocking French ports and roads? If ferry operators are unable to unload at French ports because of congestion, ferries will stop, ferry companies go out of business. Likely? Maybe the assumption is the tailbacks will be caused UK side because the UK will introduce outgoing Customs checks. Why? Supposedly, the EU is planning direct ferry routes from Cork and… Read more »