Will The 2020 Race Depend Entirely On The Green New Deal?


That I’m not a fan of the Green New Deal should be obvious – I know where it started, who wrote it and the problems they have with regard to reality. But then that’s not how politics works, is it? Disagreeing with the universe is no bar to an idea being tried even if it does still ensure failure.

The thing is, pretty much the entire left is lining up to approve of that Green New Deal – nonsense though it is. Leaving, so far at least, only the one likely candidate in the 2020 race – a certain Donald Trump – opposing it. Which is going to be interesting, for how much do Americans really want this grab bag of progressive policies?


Not that we should believe everything we read in the newspapers and certainly not headlines in Newsweek but let’s run with this as being true. What then?

Then I think Trump wins in 2020 at a slow walk. For I really don’t think the Green New Deal is something that people outside the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party are going to sign on for.

The thing being that it’s not just a set of policies to deal with climate change. It’s an entire revolution in the structure of the American economy. Something I simply don’t think the majority – nor a plurality – are going to vote for. I’m not even certain that a plurality of those who vote in Democratic primaries will.

My best guess therefore is that the Green New Deal will be a big thing in the infighting right now. For the only people thinking about politics in any detail right now are the true nerds. As actual voting starts to take place, this time next year, I’d expect to see it fading in prominence. It’s not going to be a marquee policy that wins primary votes. And by the time 2020 summer arrives and we’re actually in real election season and America, rather than the nerds alone, is paying attention it’ll be one of those things not spoken about, like the uncle doing time for kiddie fiddling.

Not because doing something about climate change is opposed by the majority but because of all the rest that’s been smuggled into the same proposal.

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