We Did Know What We Were Voting For And The Next Step Is No Deal

4
997

Introduction
The difference between Leaving and Remaining is where we end up in 10-20 years. Once in a lifetime, see, so the viewpoint is some significant portion of a lifetime. Describing those long term outcomes and testing against them can tell us what to do next.

Method
A vote for Remain was to endorse the EU project. It is a self declared one way ticket to a massive federal superstate. That is what you would have voted for – more and more control from Superstate HQ in Brussels, less local control over taxation, wealth redistribution, trade policies, movement of population, currency, foreign policy including military forces. A big open market, with lots and lots of rules and a wall around the outside to keep out strangers.

A vote to Leave was to disentangle ourselves and move away from the EU to reclaim UK control over as many aspects of our lives as possible. Those include law making, immigration policy, trade policy, foreign policy and so on. It meant finding new markets and trying to break into them. But also losing being a part of that big, protected, regulated, market. It was taking a risk with both bigger upside and downside.

There was a choice between 2 very different directions for our future and we collectively chose the Leave option.

Our relationship with the EU has been getting more entangled for the last 20 years. We were constantly informed by Cameron et al. that smoothly undoing all of that instantly was never possible.  A reasonable timeframe for completion might therefore be roughly 10 years.

Test
We now have a nice simple test as to whether something delivers on “Brexit”. Does it get us along that disentanglement path, and at a quick enough pace to complete within the scope of 2 parliamentary terms?

Results
Having carelessly thrown away a bunch of other alternatives the options are the following:

  • No Deal WTO exit – Definite Pass.  Fast and hard and with a high adrenaline ride;
  • EFTA membership – Pass. Although not the target it could be a viable stepping stone;
  • Common Market 2.0 – Scrapes a Pass. A baby step instantly requiring another move;
  • Extending A50 – Fails. Achieves nothing other than delay;
  • Single Market membership – Fails.  Little or No disentaglement;
  • Labour Customs Union plan – Fails.   Little or No disentaglement;
  • Mays’ WA – Fails.  In 10 years time we could still be stuck in the backstop;
  • Staying in – Totally Fails.

Conclusions

Asking the EU for “EFTA” is the softest available route consistent with the referendum result.  It requires EU permission, which they have declined to give.

“No Deal” with the hope of some rapid relationship building and a free trade deal is the only other viable option.

Why is that so difficult for MP’s to understand?

Unlike many news organisations, we chose an approach that means all our reporting is free and available for everyone. We need your support to keep delivering quality journalism, to maintain our openness and to protect our precious independence. Every reader contribution, big or small, is so valuable.
For as little as £1 (£10 if you were at OxBridge) you can support us – and it only takes a minute. Thank you.

Click Here To Make A Contribution - Tim & The Team